Long-term Variant Scenario Forecasts
[Updated Mar 29th, 2021, based on data up to Mar 27th,2021 ]
The following scenarios have been simulated considering the combinations of the following (motivated by the MIDAS Scenario Modeling Hub)
- High Vaccination - Assumes 50 million courses of 2-dose vaccines administered per month in the future, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 75% after one dose. Vaccine acceptance in any priority group is around 70-90%. Additionally, 10-20M doses of J&J available with efficacy 70%.
- Low Vaccines - Assumes 45 million courses administered per month in the future, and efficacy 85% after two doses, 50% after one dose. Vaccine acceptance in any priority group is 50-75%. Additionally, 5M doses of J&J available with efficacy 60%.
- Moderate NPI - Precautions stepped down to 50% of March levels gradually over 5 months (100% would mean no NPI).
- Low NPI - Precautions stepped down to 80% of March levels gradually over 5 months.
The new strain is estimated to be roughly 1.4x more trasmissible
